NFIB Small Business Trends

I've been seeing a lot of discussion in the blogosphere about NFIB's latest report on Small Business Economic Trends (see full report here). On the surface, it's not a pretty picture. Business owners are not optimistic about the future, aren't making capital investments, and don't plan to begin hiring any time soon. Of course, depending on your political slant, you interpret this information very differently. The Right claims that business owners are worried about an onerous regulatory regime and higher taxes/health care costs. The Left sees it as the inevitable hangover of the Great Bush Recession which could be cured by further fiscal stimulus. However, it's been occurring to me lately that persistently high unemployment may not be due to economic cycles so much as a structural readjustment in the nature of work that has been long hypothesized. My experience working with and speaking to entrepreneurs leads me to believe that they are not hiring because they simply don't have to. Technology (in particular web 2.0 applications) has made outsourcing easier than ever, and far flung networks of contractors very manageable. New productivity tools have greatly simplified administrative tasks, or rendered them obsolete. Since administrative positions (mailroom clerks, secretaries) have traditionally formed the gateway to white collar work, we may need to rethink how we prepare young people to enter the workforce. We may also have to adjust their expectations of what their futures will be like. I'm going to expand on these thoughts in future posts, but I will say that I don't think this is all negative. People who are prepared for the new workplace reality will have the opportunity for really exciting, fulfilling, and flexible careers. Of course, the unprepared face a lot of painful uncertainty.